2000 Governor · IN
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 33%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.56% · Republican 41.68%
D+14.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 33 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 56.557 − 41.678 = 14.879
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (14.879) = 1.122
- Absolute miss = |1.122| = 1.122
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54450, race ID 1420 (538 database).