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2000 Senate · DE

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.53% · Republican 43.70%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.526 − 43.698 = 11.828
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (11.828) = -10.827
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.827| = 10.827

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54442, race ID 1686 (538 database).