Skip to content

1998 Governor · RI

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 1998-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 42%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.13% · Republican 50.97%

R+8.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 42 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.130 − 50.965 = -8.835
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-8.835) = 4.835
  4. Absolute miss = |4.835| = 4.835

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54414, race ID 1460 (538 database).