1998 Senate · PA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 807 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 34% · Republican 57%
R+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 34.79% · Republican 61.34%
R+26.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 34 − 57 = -23.00
- Actual margin = 34.787 − 61.342 = -26.555
- Signed miss = -23.00 − (-26.555) = 3.554
- Absolute miss = |3.554| = 3.554
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54408, race ID 1744 (538 database).