1998 Governor · OH
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 1998-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,196 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.69% · Republican 50.05%
R+5.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 44.689 − 50.048 = -5.359
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-5.359) = -5.641
- Absolute miss = |-5.641| = 5.641
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54396, race ID 1456 (538 database).