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1998 Governor · NY

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 1,792 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 24% · Republican 48%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 30.47% · Republican 44.59%

R+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 24 − 48 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 30.466 − 44.591 = -14.125
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-14.125) = -9.875
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.875| = 9.875

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54375, race ID 1455 (538 database).