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1998 Governor · NM

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 409 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.47% · Republican 54.53%

R+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.469 − 54.531 = -9.062
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-9.062) = 5.062
  4. Absolute miss = |5.062| = 5.062

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54359, race ID 1454 (538 database).