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1998 Governor · NE

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 1998-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 831 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 50%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.98% · Republican 53.91%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 50 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.976 − 53.905 = -7.929
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-7.929) = -6.071
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.071| = 6.071

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54347, race ID 1451 (538 database).