1998 Governor · MN
Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 1998-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 1,007 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 34%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.08% · Republican 34.29%
R+6.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 34 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 28.082 − 34.292 = -6.210
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-6.210) = 7.210
- Absolute miss = |7.210| = 7.210
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54342, race ID 1450 (538 database).