1998 Governor · MI
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 1,535 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 51%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 37.78% · Republican 62.20%
R+24.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 51 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 37.778 − 62.205 = -24.427
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-24.427) = 9.427
- Absolute miss = |9.427| = 9.427
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54334, race ID 1449 (538 database).