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1998 Governor · ME

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 13% · Republican 18%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 12.00% · Republican 18.93%

R+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 13 − 18 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 11.996 − 18.935 = -6.939
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-6.939) = 1.938
  4. Absolute miss = |1.938| = 1.938

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54328, race ID 1446 (538 database).