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1998 Governor · MA

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 1998-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 46%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.38% · Republican 50.81%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.382 − 50.814 = -3.432
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-3.432) = -1.568
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.568| = 1.568

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54307, race ID 1448 (538 database).