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1998 House · HI-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 1998-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 221 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 36%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.56% · Republican 36.35%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 36 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.556 − 36.348 = 25.208
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (25.208) = -11.208
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.208| = 11.208

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54265, race ID 1964 (538 database).