1998 Governor · GA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,408 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 50%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.49% · Republican 44.08%
D+8.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 52.492 − 44.076 = 8.416
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (8.416) = -15.416
- Absolute miss = |-15.416| = 15.416
The poll overstated the Republican by 15.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54262, race ID 1440 (538 database).