1998 Senate · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 2,819 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 39%
D+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.47% · Republican 37.53%
D+24.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 39 = 22.00
- Actual margin = 62.469 − 37.531 = 24.938
- Signed miss = 22.00 − (24.938) = -2.939
- Absolute miss = |-2.939| = 2.939
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54253, race ID 1724 (538 database).