1998 Governor · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 2,819 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 58%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.72% · Republican 55.27%
R+10.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 58 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 44.724 − 55.269 = -10.545
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-10.545) = -6.455
- Absolute miss = |-6.455| = 6.455
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54253, race ID 1439 (538 database).