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1998 Governor · FL

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 2,295 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 56%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.72% · Republican 55.27%

R+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 56 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.724 − 55.269 = -10.545
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-10.545) = -5.455
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.455| = 5.455

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54247, race ID 1439 (538 database).