1998 Senate · CO
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 614 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 55%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.02% · Republican 62.49%
R+27.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 55 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 35.017 − 62.489 = -27.472
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-27.472) = 9.472
- Absolute miss = |9.472| = 9.472
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54225, race ID 1722 (538 database).