1998 Governor · CA
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 1998-11-01 (2 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 37%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.97% · Republican 38.38%
D+19.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 37 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 57.968 − 38.377 = 19.591
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (19.591) = 3.409
- Absolute miss = |3.409| = 3.409
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54219, race ID 1436 (538 database).