1998 Senate · CA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 5,735 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.06% · Republican 43.01%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 53.057 − 43.012 = 10.045
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (10.045) = -8.046
- Absolute miss = |-8.046| = 8.046
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54218, race ID 1721 (538 database).