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2008 Governor · MO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 38%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.40% · Republican 39.49%

D+18.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 38 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.400 − 39.488 = 18.912
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (18.912) = 0.088
  4. Absolute miss = |0.088| = 0.088

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54121, race ID 1315 (538 database).