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2008 Governor · NC

GfK Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.27% · Republican 46.88%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.275 − 46.877 = 3.398
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.398) = -3.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.397| = 3.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54118, race ID 1323 (538 database).