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2012 Governor · WI

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-05-23 (13 days before the election) · 1,409 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 54%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.28% · Republican 53.08%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 54 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.282 − 53.082 = -6.800
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-6.800) = -5.200
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.200| = 5.200

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54039, race ID 1269 (538 database).