2012 Governor · WI
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2012-05-23 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.28% · Republican 53.08%
R+6.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 46.282 − 53.082 = -6.800
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-6.800) = 3.800
- Absolute miss = |3.800| = 3.800
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54031, race ID 1269 (538 database).