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2012 Governor · WI

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2012-05-23 (13 days before the election) · 935 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48.62% · Republican 49.89%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 46.28% · Republican 53.08%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.62 − 49.89 = -1.27
  2. Actual margin = 46.282 − 53.082 = -6.800
  3. Signed miss = -1.27 − (-6.800) = 5.530
  4. Absolute miss = |5.530| = 5.530

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 54030, race ID 1269 (538 database).