2018 House · OH-12
Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-08-03 (4 days before the election) · 431 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.32% · Republican 50.12%
R+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 49.317 − 50.124 = -0.807
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.807) = 1.807
- Absolute miss = |1.807| = 1.807
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53501, race ID 1756 (538 database).