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2018 House · OH-12

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2018-07-28 (10 days before the election) · 423 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.32% · Republican 50.12%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.317 − 50.124 = -0.807
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.807) = 1.807
  4. Absolute miss = |1.807| = 1.807

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53468, race ID 1756 (538 database).