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2018 House · OH-12

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2018-07-28 (10 days before the election) · 617 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.32% · Republican 50.12%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.317 − 50.124 = -0.807
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-0.807) = -3.193
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.193| = 3.193

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53467, race ID 1756 (538 database).