2018 House · OH-12
GBAO · fieldwork ended 2018-07-24 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 48%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.32% · Republican 50.12%
R+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 49.317 − 50.124 = -0.807
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-0.807) = -2.193
- Absolute miss = |-2.193| = 2.193
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53429, race ID 1756 (538 database).