2010 Governor · WI
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 47%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.25%
R+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 46.478 − 52.246 = -5.768
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.768) = 3.768
- Absolute miss = |3.768| = 3.768
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53333, race ID 1309 (538 database).