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2010 Governor · VT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.48% · Republican 47.69%

D+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.479 − 47.686 = 1.793
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (1.793) = 3.207
  4. Absolute miss = |3.207| = 3.207

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53327, race ID 1308 (538 database).