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2010 Governor · TX

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.30% · Republican 54.97%

R+12.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.298 − 54.971 = -12.673
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-12.673) = 3.673
  4. Absolute miss = |3.673| = 3.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53298, race ID 1306 (538 database).