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2010 Governor · TX

Blum & Weprin Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 673 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 49%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.30% · Republican 54.97%

R+12.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 49 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.298 − 54.971 = -12.673
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-12.673) = 0.673
  4. Absolute miss = |0.673| = 0.673

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53297, race ID 1306 (538 database).