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2010 Governor · OR

Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 47.77%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.295 − 47.765 = 1.530
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (1.530) = -0.530
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.530| = 0.530

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53211, race ID 1300 (538 database).