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2010 Governor · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 753 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 56%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.55% · Republican 60.45%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 56 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.551 − 60.449 = -20.898
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-20.898) = 2.898
  4. Absolute miss = |2.898| = 2.898

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53202, race ID 1290 (538 database).