2004 House · SD-1
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-05-19 (13 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 41%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.57% · Republican 49.43%
D+1.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 50.574 − 49.426 = 1.148
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (1.148) = 9.852
- Absolute miss = |9.852| = 9.852
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 5319, race ID 1825 (538 database).