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2010 Governor · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 712 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 37%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.63% · Republican 43.21%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 37 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.627 − 43.211 = 0.416
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.416) = 4.584
  4. Absolute miss = |4.584| = 4.584

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53077, race ID 1296 (538 database).