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2010 Governor · MN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.63% · Republican 43.21%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.627 − 43.211 = 0.416
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.416) = 2.584
  4. Absolute miss = |2.584| = 2.584

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53076, race ID 1296 (538 database).