2010 Governor · MN
St. Cloud State University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 462 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 40% · Republican 30%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.63% · Republican 43.21%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 40 − 30 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 43.627 − 43.211 = 0.416
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (0.416) = 9.584
- Absolute miss = |9.584| = 9.584
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53075, race ID 1296 (538 database).