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2010 Governor · MN

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 2,058 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.63% · Republican 43.21%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.627 − 43.211 = 0.416
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.416) = 2.584
  4. Absolute miss = |2.584| = 2.584

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53071, race ID 1296 (538 database).