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2010 Governor · MI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 54%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.90% · Republican 58.12%

R+18.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 54 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.903 − 58.115 = -18.212
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-18.212) = -1.789
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.789| = 1.789

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53057, race ID 1295 (538 database).