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2010 Governor · MA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 42%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.42% · Republican 42.01%

D+6.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.422 − 42.005 = 6.417
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.417) = -1.418
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.418| = 1.418

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53027, race ID 1294 (538 database).