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2010 House · MA-4

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 385 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 33%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.90% · Republican 43.36%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 33 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.900 − 43.360 = 10.540
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (10.540) = 2.460
  4. Absolute miss = |2.460| = 2.460

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53025, race ID 4652 (538 database).