2010 Governor · MA
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 39%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.42% · Republican 42.01%
D+6.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 39 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 48.422 − 42.005 = 6.417
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (6.417) = 0.582
- Absolute miss = |0.582| = 0.582
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53024, race ID 1294 (538 database).