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2010 Governor · ME

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 35%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 16.33% · Republican 43.00%

R+26.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 35 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 16.329 − 43.001 = -26.672
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-26.672) = 23.672
  4. Absolute miss = |23.672| = 23.672

The poll overstated the Democrat by 23.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 53002, race ID 1292 (538 database).