2010 Governor · ME
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 21.8% · Republican 36.8%
R+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 16.33% · Republican 43.00%
R+26.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 21.8 − 36.8 = -15.00
- Actual margin = 16.329 − 43.001 = -26.672
- Signed miss = -15.00 − (-26.672) = 11.672
- Absolute miss = |11.672| = 11.672
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52999, race ID 1292 (538 database).