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2010 Governor · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 1,686 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41.6% · Republican 48.5%

R+6.9

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 53.02%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.6 − 48.5 = -6.90
  2. Actual margin = 42.971 − 53.018 = -10.047
  3. Signed miss = -6.90 − (-10.047) = 3.147
  4. Absolute miss = |3.147| = 3.147

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52963, race ID 1282 (538 database).