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2012 House · CA-52

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 50%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.18% · Republican 48.82%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 50 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.181 − 48.819 = 2.362
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (2.362) = -10.363
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.363| = 10.363

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52499, race ID 4968 (538 database).