2012 House · PA-12
Clout Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 44%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.27% · Republican 51.73%
R+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 44 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 48.265 − 51.735 = -3.470
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-3.470) = -1.529
- Absolute miss = |-1.529| = 1.529
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52378, race ID 5232 (538 database).