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2012 House · FL-10

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 680 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42.3% · Republican 50%

R+7.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.25% · Republican 51.73%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.3 − 50 = -7.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.253 − 51.733 = -3.480
  3. Signed miss = -7.70 − (-3.480) = -4.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.220| = 4.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52272, race ID 4992 (538 database).